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Approach adopted in the risk assessment analysis took into account two main topics, the Evaluation and identification of threat scenarios due to terrorist attack and the evaluation of main vulnerabilities of identified European Critical Infrastructures (ECI)

Main techniques applied for performing the risk assessment analysis were:

  • Hazard Identification (HAZID)
  • Zone Analysis (ZA)

The above techniques allows the analysis and study of critical events at a global level, including the ECI physical structure, the personnel, the population living near the ECI and the chain correlation to other ECI's.

The study highlighted that terrorist attack is a new threat, which was not taken into account during the design phase of the ECI structure. Then it has been considered different:

  • Existing ECI: any modification to the infrastructure is difficult and expensive to be implement. In these cases, automatic detection systems with appropriate sensors to detect the threat coming from land, air, sea and under the sea, could alert security personnel or automatically activate proper reactions
  • ECI yet to be designed and built: in this case main design features to minimize the effect of threat scenarios so reducing the ECI vulnerability have been analyzed.

An extract of "ZONE Analysis" is shown for a specific class of ECI and a threat scenario case (click the image to enlarge)

ZONE Analysis Worksheet




In order to define the most appropriate characteristics for an integrated security system to reduce the vulnerability of Critical Infrastructures undergoing terrorist attacks, the relevant operating requirements have been defined.

The activity was conducted by establishing the operating requirements to be applied to each threat scenarios identified previously during the Risk Assessment Analysis, and it has been extended to the evaluation of the reached results with a FSA (Formal Safety Assessment) type risk analysis, giving indication to users to evaluate the costs benefits and differences on likelihood and severity, after the apply of the devices to reduce the risk to acceptable level.

Security risk parameters resulted for each threat scenario and for different European Critical Infrastructures have been organized in a summary table.

An extract of the summary table referred to a couple of ECI is shown (click the image to enlarge)



The project provides indications on operating requirements in terms of minimum detection range of a sensor based system granting a proper “reaction”, that, depending on the adopted procedure and laws, can be: forwarding alert messages, activation of security forces, personnel escape, etc


With the support of the "Prevention, Preparedness and Consequence Management of Terrorism and other Security-related Risks Programme", European Commission - Directorate-General Home Affairs